Yesterday, the strong performance of U.S. retail data perfectly supported the dollar to rise again after the data release. Unless the market regains confidence in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the dollar is unlikely to experience a significant downward correction in the short term. The current risk is that if the core PCE and October non-farm employment slightly increase, the market may choose to digest the expectation of only one rate cut in November or December. Tonight's data is relatively light, with only some Federal Reserve speeches, and we will pay attention to whether they will further lean towards the hawkish side under the support of yesterday's retail data. Even if the U.S. dollar index may experience a small and short-term adjustment today, we can easily see it climb above 104-104.5 in the coming weeks.
The gold market has recently shown a strong upward trend, mainly influenced by the dollar's performance, expectations of global central bank rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions. The spot gold price has broken through the $2,700 mark, setting a historical high. The daily chart of gold shows that the price has gained positive traction for four consecutive days, with bullish strength reaching new highs and ending the previous short-term downward trend. Although the U.S. dollar index continues to rebound and strengthen, the market's expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may limit the dollar's upward space. The dollar's strength poses downward pressure on gold prices, but the recent rebound of the dollar has not stopped the rise in gold prices, indicating a strong bullish trend for gold. Xu Gucheng emphasized that the uncertainty of U.S. politics and tensions in the Middle East further boosted gold prices, which will continue to operate at high levels, supported by safe-haven demand, and can continue to look forward to new highs.
Gold: As expected, gold broke through $2,700, and the morning session once again pulled up to $2,714. The European session fell back to the current price of $2,702. Gold has been continuously and slowly rising and breaking highs for a week, and this historic moment is worth everyone's deep reflection and remembrance. History will definitely be broken again, and it is also a time for many people to be reborn and perish. The bull market for gold is based on the macro environment of a sluggish global economy and fluctuating geopolitical crises. For people all over the world, the rise in gold prices is not a good thing. Although history is being created and refreshed, this is definitely not a day to be happy. In the short term, the main focus is still on long positions, without chasing highs. As long as there are pullbacks in the intraday short-term positions in the market, continue to follow up. However, it is only for the short term, after all, it is at a high level, mainly following up in the short term, buying low during the day, and selling high. In terms of operations, Xu Gucheng believes that a pullback to $2,692-90 for a long position is advisable, with a target of $2,710-2,715.
Crude Oil: Recently, the strong dollar exchange rate has reached a new high in 11 weeks, which has had a certain inhibitory effect on the demand for crude oil priced in dollars. The strength of the dollar means higher costs when buying crude oil, which may reduce its demand. Crude oil fluctuated overnight, with technical patterns meeting the conditions for a rebound. However, the fundamentals remain pessimistic, with the weak global economic situation dragging down the growth of crude oil consumption. Many mainstream research institutions have expressed pessimism about the prospects for oil prices. Currently, it is fluctuating within a narrow range of 69.44-71.3, and it has been lingering here for several days. It may break through in the evening and usher in a new round of trend-following operations. A large amount of bullish positions in crude oil may suggest hope for a rebound, and even if it continues to decline, the strength may be weakened. Crude oil's daily chart has consecutively closed with small阳线, which is likely a correction for the excessive deviation rate. The downward structure of the 1-hour cycle is likely to be completed, and the price has returned to the previous trading dense area, with a high probability of a short-term rebound. The bulls can focus on the support at the $70 level.