The US Dollar Index continued to rise this week, extending a three-week rally. Multiple data points indicate a strong performance of the US economy, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in smaller increments over the next year and a half. There is also a belief that Trump will win the election, which is expected to boost the dollar, leading the US Dollar Index to an 11-week high. Although the fundamentals of the economy are not yet sufficient, capital markets have always been about trading expectations, and when all economic data return to normal, the capital markets may no longer be able to rise. In contrast, the economies of various European entities have mostly stagnated or are already in recession, yet the capital markets have been bullish, serving as a classic example. Xu Gucheng stated that although the previous US inflation data was lower than the previous value but still higher than expected, along with a series of factors such as the rise in the number of initial jobless claims this week, these have confirmed people's expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in the future, which is enough to push gold prices to historical highs. Strong buying from central banks and robust demand from the over-the-counter market have also driven the rise in gold prices.
This week, gold and silver broke through upward as expected, continuing to set new highs. The emphasis here is on the key interval structure. This week also saw a breakthrough in the pressure at 2686, influenced by the continuous fermentation of risk-aversion sentiment, reaching a high of $2,722.47 per ounce, and ultimately rising by 2.45% for the week. Xu Gucheng believes that the uncertainty of the global economy has intensified the safe-haven appeal of gold, especially against the backdrop of global central banks adopting more accommodative monetary policies. The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates again in December, and the US market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in November is as high as 92%. Gold itself does not generate interest, and rate cuts reduce its opportunity cost.
Gold: The weekly line has continued to close positive, and the four consecutive daily positive closes have given the gold bulls a divine boost. However, it is important to note that although the daily closing with a positive body has effectively broken through the resistance of the upper Bollinger band, and the short-term moving averages remain in a golden cross upward, due to the fact that the opening prices in the early morning of the past few days have been slightly higher and have not been able to be repaired, the daily line should still be cautiously bullish. On the 4-hour side, the price rebounded and touched the upper Bollinger band, which is also the pressure position of the upward trend line, and there is a need for repair in the short cycle of 4 hours. Next week's operation, Xu Gucheng suggests that the main focus should be on pulling back and going long, with high altitude as a supplement. Next week's initial opening should first pay attention to the 2725 area, and below, look at the test and extension of the 2700 threshold. If the 2725 area is strongly broken through by the bulls, it will increase the probability of testing the 2735-2740 area, but this is the upper Bollinger band on the weekly line and the only resistance shown above, and it is expected that the probability of breaking through at the beginning of next week is very low, so short positions can still be laid out below. As for the support below, pay attention to 2700 and 2683, and any time next week when approaching, long positions can be laid out.
Crude Oil: On Friday, it rose and fell, and the daily line closed negative. On the weekly trend, a significant drop broke through the short-term moving averages, maintaining a slightly weak trend. On the daily line, the K-line is under pressure from the short-term moving averages, maintaining a good downward trend. On the 4-hour level, the price began to slowly break through the previous low震荡区间, and the short-term moving averages also began to turn downward and diverge, indicating that the downward space in the short-term trend has not yet been completed. It is recommended to focus on the pressure area of the downward trend line first. After the contract switch is adjusted next week, try to go short on crude oil, focusing on the 69.5 previous support position, which has now become a pressure position for shorting and looking for a decline, with the downside looking at 68.1-67.2.